Veikkausliiga· Finland · Championship Group - 26

HJK Helsinki

16:00

🕒 16:00

VPS

HJK Helsinki vs VPS prediction

📅 Thu 8 Oct 2026 🏟️ Bolt Arena, Helsinki 🧑‍⚖️ Oliver Reitala

Prediction

● Live data

44%

HJK Helsinki

37%

Draw

19%

VPS

HJK Helsinki 44% · draw 37% · VPS 19%. We pick Under 3.5 (3.5 Goals). Most likely score 1-0, over 2.5 at 37%, BTTS at 43%.

🎯 Our pick

3.5 Goals · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.40 Confidence 71%

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All prediction categories

1X2

Value

144%

Fair 2.29Odds 5.00

Home win

Value

Home win44%

Fair 2.29Odds 5.00

Away win

Away win19%

Fair 5.17Odds 1.22

Double chance

1X81%

Fair 1.24Odds 1.15

Draw no bet

Home DNB69%

Fair 1.44Odds —

Win either half

Home WEH54%

Fair 1.85Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.564%

Fair 1.57Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

Under 2.563%

Fair 1.59Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

Under 3.583%

Fair 1.21Odds —

Both teams to score

Value

NG (No)57%

Fair 1.76Odds 2.00

Correct score

Value

1-014%

Fair 7.18Odds 7.50

Banker tip

Under 3.583%

Fair 1.21Odds —

Super single

Over 1.564%

Fair 1.57Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner

11.57

X3.90

25.00

Double chance

1X1.15

121.22

X22.30

Both teams to score

Yes1.75

No2.00

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	44%	2.29	5.00	Value
Home win	Home win	44%	2.29	5.00	Value
Away win	Away win	19%	5.17	1.22
Double chance	1X	81%	1.24	1.15
Draw no bet	Home DNB	69%	1.44	—
Win either half	Home WEH	54%	1.85	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	64%	1.57	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	63%	1.59	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	83%	1.21	—
BTTS	NG (No)	57%	1.76	2.00	Value
Correct score	1-0	14%	7.18	7.50	Value
Banker	Under 3.5	83%	1.21	—
Super single	Over 1.5	64%	1.57	—

Form & head to head

HJK Helsinki

LWWDD

53%

Form

88%

Attack

25%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)7 / 6

Season W-D-L12-6-7

Clean sheets · failed to score9 · 6

VPS

WLWLL

40%

Form

25%

Attack

50%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 4

Season W-D-L10-6-9

Clean sheets · failed to score7 · 8

Team comparison

Form

57%

43%

Attack

78%

22%

Defence

40%

60%

Poisson model

53%

47%

Head to head

71%

29%

Goals

64%

36%

Overall

60%

39%

Head to head

6

Home wins

1

Draws

3

Away wins

18 Jul 26 HJK Helsinki 2 - 1 VPS

22 May 26 VPS 2 - 1 HJK Helsinki

5 Jul 25 VPS 0 - 2 HJK Helsinki

26 Apr 25 HJK Helsinki 3 - 1 VPS

20 Sep 24 VPS 1 - 1 HJK Helsinki

1 Sep 24 VPS 1 - 3 HJK Helsinki

3.10 goals per meeting · BTTS in 7 of 10 · over 2.5 in 7 of 10.

Match preview

HJK Helsinki vs VPS: match preview

HJK Helsinki host VPS in the Veikkausliiga (Championship Group - 26) at Bolt Arena on Thursday 8 October, kick-off 16:00.

Form guide

HJK Helsinki have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. VPS have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 league games, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. At home this season HJK Helsinki have 7 wins from 12 games, while VPS have won 4 of 12 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.22 goals for HJK Helsinki and 0.95 for VPS, 2.17 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 64% chance, over 2.5 37% and both teams to score 43%. The single most likely score is 1-0.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, HJK Helsinki won 6, VPS won 3 and 1 ended level, with 3.1 goals per game and both teams scoring in 7.

Our verdict

Our main pick is 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) at 71% confidence, priced at 1.40. The model also leans towards Under 3.5 (83%), 1X (81%), Home DNB (69%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: HJK Helsinki 44%, draw 37%, VPS 19%.
Expected goals: 1.22 vs 0.95.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
HJK Helsinki have 9 clean sheets this season; VPS have 7.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : HJK Helsinki or draw.

See more Veikkausliiga numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 00:50 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for HJK Helsinki vs VPS?

Our main pick is 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) with 71% confidence. Win probabilities are HJK Helsinki 44%, draw 37% and VPS 19%.

Will both teams score in HJK Helsinki vs VPS?

Our model gives both teams to score a 43% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in HJK Helsinki vs VPS?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 37% chance and the most likely score is 1-0.

When and where is HJK Helsinki vs VPS?

Thursday 8 October 2026 at 16:00, Bolt Arena, Helsinki.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.