UEFA Europa League· World · Play-offs

Lech Poznan

7-0

FT

FC Thun

Lech Poznan vs FC Thun prediction

📅 Thu 20 Aug 2026 🏟️ Enea Poznań, Poznan 🧑‍⚖️ Sebastian Gishamer, Austria

Prediction

● Live data

52%

Lech Poznan

32%

Draw

15%

FC Thun

Lech Poznan 52% · draw 32% · FC Thun 15%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 2-1, over 2.5 at 68%, BTTS at 64%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · 1X

1X Confidence 73%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✓

152%

Fair 1.91Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win52%

Fair 1.91Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win15%

Fair 6.59Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X85%

Fair 1.18Odds —

Draw no bet

✓

Home DNB78%

Fair 1.29Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH73%

Fair 1.38Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.586%

Fair 1.16Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.568%

Fair 1.47Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.554%

Fair 1.86Odds —

Both teams to score

✕

GG (Yes)64%

Fair 1.57Odds —

Correct score

✕

2-110%

Fair 10.47Odds —

Banker tip

✓

Over 1.586%

Fair 1.16Odds —

Super single

✕

GG (Yes)64%

Fair 1.57Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	52%	1.91	—
Home win	Home win	52%	1.91	—
Away win	Away win	15%	6.59	—
Double chance	1X	85%	1.18	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	78%	1.29	—
Win either half	Home WEH	73%	1.38	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	86%	1.16	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.47	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	54%	1.86	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	64%	1.57	—
Correct score	2-1	10%	10.47	—
Banker	Over 1.5	86%	1.16	—
Super single	GG (Yes)	64%	1.57	—

Form & head to head

Lech Poznan

WW

100%

Form

32%

Attack

100%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)6 / 0

Season W-D-L2-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score2 · 0

FC Thun

WL

50%

Form

26%

Attack

84%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)5 / 3

Season W-D-L1-0-1

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 0

Team comparison

Form

67%

33%

Attack

55%

45%

Defence

100%

0%

Poisson model

100%

0%

Head to head

0%

Goals

0%

Overall

61%

39%

Head to head

1

Home wins

1

Draws

0

Away wins

27 Aug 26 FC Thun 2 - 2 Lech Poznan

20 Aug 26 Lech Poznan 7 - 0 FC Thun

5.50 goals per meeting · BTTS in 1 of 2 · over 2.5 in 2 of 2.

Match statistics

56%Ball Possession44%

11Shots on Goal4

5Corner Kicks3

8Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

Key events

10'⚽ P. Walemark Normal Goal
20'⚽ A. Sayyadmanesh Normal Goal
25'⚽ P. Walemark Normal Goal
31'⚽ M. Skrzypczak Normal Goal
45'⚽ R. Murawski Normal Goal
47'⚽ D. Hakans Normal Goal
50'🟨 Nils Reichmuth Yellow Card
66'📺 Furkan Dursun Goal cancelled
70'🟨 Tom Strannegård Yellow Card
79'⚽ R. Gumny Normal Goal
87'🟨 Radosław Murawski Yellow Card

Match preview

Lech Poznan vs FC Thun: match preview

Lech Poznan host FC Thun in the UEFA Europa League (Play-offs) at Enea Poznań on Thursday 20 August, kick-off 18:00. The match finished 7-0.

Form guide

Lech Poznan have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 2 league games, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded. FC Thun have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 2 league games, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. At home this season Lech Poznan have 1 win from 1 game, while FC Thun have won 0 of 1 game on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 2.25 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.25 for FC Thun, 3.50 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 86% chance, over 2.5 68% and both teams to score 64%. The single most likely score is 2-1.

Head to head

In their last 2 meetings, Lech Poznan won 1, FC Thun won 0 and 1 ended level, with 5.5 goals per game and both teams scoring in 1.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 73% confidence. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (86%), 1X (85%), Home DNB (78%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Lech Poznan 52%, draw 32%, FC Thun 15%.
Expected goals: 2.25 vs 1.25.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 2 meetings.
Lech Poznan have 2 clean sheets this season; FC Thun have 1.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : Lech Poznan or draw.

See more UEFA Europa League numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 01:21 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lech Poznan vs FC Thun?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 73% confidence. Win probabilities are Lech Poznan 52%, draw 32% and FC Thun 15%.

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs FC Thun?

Our model gives both teams to score a 64% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Lech Poznan vs FC Thun?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 68% chance and the most likely score is 2-1.

When and where is Lech Poznan vs FC Thun?

Thursday 20 August 2026 at 18:00, Enea Poznań, Poznan.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.