La Liga· Spain · Regular Season - 4

Alaves

5-2

FT

Osasuna

Alaves vs Osasuna prediction

📅 Sun 6 Sep 2026 🏟️ Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz 🧑‍⚖️ Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Prediction

● Live data

52%

Alaves

37%

Draw

11%

Osasuna

Alaves 52% · draw 37% · Osasuna 11%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-0, over 2.5 at 26%, BTTS at 26%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · 1X

1X Confidence 69%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✓

152%

Fair 1.91Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win52%

Fair 1.91Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win11%

Fair 9.12Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X89%

Fair 1.12Odds —

Draw no bet

✓

Home DNB83%

Fair 1.21Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH66%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.553%

Fair 1.90Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✕

Under 2.574%

Fair 1.35Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.590%

Fair 1.11Odds —

Both teams to score

✕

NG (No)74%

Fair 1.35Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-023%

Fair 4.37Odds —

Banker tip

✕

Under 3.590%

Fair 1.11Odds —

Super single

✓

Home WEH66%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	52%	1.91	—
Home win	Home win	52%	1.91	—
Away win	Away win	11%	9.12	—
Double chance	1X	89%	1.12	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	83%	1.21	—
Win either half	Home WEH	66%	1.52	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	53%	1.90	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	74%	1.35	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	90%	1.11	—
BTTS	NG (No)	74%	1.35	—
Correct score	1-0	23%	4.37	—
Banker	Under 3.5	90%	1.11	—
Super single	Home WEH	66%	1.52	—

Form & head to head

Alaves

WDW

78%

Form

26%

Attack

95%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)5 / 1

Season W-D-L2-1-0

Clean sheets · failed to score2 · 0

Osasuna

DWW

78%

Form

16%

Attack

95%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)3 / 1

Season W-D-L2-1-0

Clean sheets · failed to score2 · 1

Team comparison

Form

50%

Attack

63%

38%

Defence

50%

Poisson model

100%

0%

Head to head

50%

Goals

44%

56%

Overall

51%

48%

Head to head

3

Home wins

3

Draws

4

Away wins

6 Sep 26 Alaves 5 - 2 Osasuna

5 Apr 26 Alaves 2 - 2 Osasuna

20 Dec 25 Osasuna 3 - 0 Alaves

24 May 25 Alaves 1 - 1 Osasuna

8 Dec 24 Osasuna 2 - 2 Alaves

10 Aug 24 Osasuna 1 - 2 Alaves

3.20 goals per meeting · BTTS in 6 of 10 · over 2.5 in 6 of 10.

Match statistics

50%Ball Possession50%

12Total Shots7

7Shots on Goal5

4Corner Kicks1

14Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

3Goalkeeper Saves2

1.20Expected goals (xG)1.64

Key events

27'⚽ L. Boye Normal Goal
36'⚽ M. Diaz Normal Goal
46'⚽ A. Budimir Normal Goal
51'⚽ L. Boye Normal Goal
58'🟨 Abel Bretones Yellow Card
62'🟨 Abderrahman Rebbach Yellow Card
64'⚽ A. Budimir Penalty
68'⚽ L. Boye Normal Goal
84'🟨 Rockson Yeboah Yellow Card
90'⚽ P. Ibanez Normal Goal

Match preview

Alaves vs Osasuna: match preview

Alaves host Osasuna in the La Liga (Regular Season - 4) at Estadio de Mendizorroza on Sunday 6 September, kick-off 17:30. The match finished 5-2.

Form guide

Alaves have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 league games, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded. Osasuna have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 league games, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.3 conceded. At home this season Alaves have 2 wins from 2 games, while Osasuna have won 1 of 1 game on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.33 goals for Alaves and 0.43 for Osasuna, 1.76 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 53% chance, over 2.5 26% and both teams to score 26%. The single most likely score is 1-0.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Alaves won 3, Osasuna won 4 and 3 ended level, with 3.2 goals per game and both teams scoring in 6.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 69% confidence. The model also leans towards Under 3.5 (90%), 1X (89%), Home DNB (83%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Alaves 52%, draw 37%, Osasuna 11%.
Expected goals: 1.33 vs 0.43.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Alaves have 2 clean sheets this season; Osasuna have 2.
API-Football model advice: Combo Double chance : Alaves or draw and -3.5 goals.

See more La Liga numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 01:18 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alaves vs Osasuna?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 69% confidence. Win probabilities are Alaves 52%, draw 37% and Osasuna 11%.

Will both teams score in Alaves vs Osasuna?

Our model gives both teams to score a 26% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Osasuna?

We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 26% chance and the most likely score is 1-0.

When and where is Alaves vs Osasuna?

Sunday 6 September 2026 at 17:30, Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.