La Liga· Spain · Regular Season - 1

Real Madrid

4-1

FT

Real Sociedad

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad prediction

📅 Wed 26 Aug 2026 🏟️ Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid 🧑‍⚖️ Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Prediction

● Live data

54%

Real Madrid

35%

Draw

11%

Real Sociedad

Real Madrid 54% · draw 35% · Real Sociedad 11%. We pick 1 (Home Win). Most likely score 1-0, over 2.5 at 32%, BTTS at 31%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Home Win · 1

1 Confidence 55%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✓

154%

Fair 1.87Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win54%

Fair 1.87Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win11%

Fair 9.02Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X89%

Fair 1.12Odds —

Draw no bet

✓

Home DNB83%

Fair 1.21Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH69%

Fair 1.44Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.559%

Fair 1.68Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✕

Under 2.568%

Fair 1.48Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.586%

Fair 1.17Odds —

Both teams to score

✕

NG (No)69%

Fair 1.44Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-020%

Fair 4.93Odds —

Banker tip

✓

1X89%

Fair 1.12Odds —

Super single

✓

Over 1.559%

Fair 1.68Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	54%	1.87	—
Home win	Home win	54%	1.87	—
Away win	Away win	11%	9.02	—
Double chance	1X	89%	1.12	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	83%	1.21	—
Win either half	Home WEH	69%	1.44	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	59%	1.68	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	68%	1.48	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	86%	1.17	—
BTTS	NG (No)	69%	1.44	—
Correct score	1-0	20%	4.93	—
Banker	1X	89%	1.12	—
Super single	Over 1.5	59%	1.68	—

Form & head to head

Real Madrid

W

100%

Form

22%

Attack

89%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 1

Season W-D-L1-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Real Sociedad

L

0%

Form

0%

Attack

89%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)0 / 1

Season W-D-L0-0-1

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 1

Team comparison

Form

100%

0%

Attack

100%

0%

Defence

50%

Poisson model

0%

Head to head

93%

7%

Goals

68%

32%

Overall

70%

29%

Head to head

8

Home wins

1

Draws

1

Away wins

26 Aug 26 Real Madrid 4 - 1 Real Sociedad

14 Feb 26 Real Madrid 4 - 1 Real Sociedad

13 Sep 25 Real Sociedad 1 - 2 Real Madrid

24 May 25 Real Madrid 2 - 0 Real Sociedad

1 Apr 25 Real Madrid 4 - 4 Real Sociedad

26 Feb 25 Real Sociedad 0 - 1 Real Madrid

3.20 goals per meeting · BTTS in 5 of 10 · over 2.5 in 5 of 10.

Match statistics

51%Ball Possession49%

20Total Shots10

11Shots on Goal3

4Corner Kicks7

10Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

2Goalkeeper Saves7

3.14Expected goals (xG)0.57

Key events

10'🟨 Álvaro Carreras Yellow Card
31'🟨 Yangel Herrera Yellow Card
40'⚽ K. Mbappe Normal Goal
44'⚽ L. Sucic Normal Goal
45'+2🟨 Jon Aramburu Yellow Card
60'⚽ K. Mbappe Normal Goal
68'⚽ Vinicius Junior Normal Goal
71'🟨 Luken Beitia Yellow Card
73'🟨 Ibrahima Konaté Yellow Card
80'⚽ K. Mbappe Normal Goal
90'+4🟨 Eduardo Camavinga Yellow Card
90'+1📺 Brahim Díaz Goal cancelled

Match preview

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad: match preview

Real Madrid host Real Sociedad in the La Liga (Regular Season - 1) at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium on Wednesday 26 August, kick-off 20:00. The match finished 4-1.

Form guide

Real Madrid have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 1 league game, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Real Sociedad have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 1 league game, averaging 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.5 goals for Real Madrid and 0.5 for Real Sociedad, 2.00 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 59% chance, over 2.5 32% and both teams to score 31%. The single most likely score is 1-0.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Real Madrid won 8, Real Sociedad won 1 and 1 ended level, with 3.2 goals per game and both teams scoring in 5.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Home Win (1) at 55% confidence. The model also leans towards 1X (89%), Under 3.5 (86%), Home DNB (83%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Real Madrid 54%, draw 35%, Real Sociedad 11%.
Expected goals: 1.5 vs 0.5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Real Madrid have 0 clean sheets this season; Real Sociedad have 0.
API-Football model advice: Combo Winner : Real Madrid and -3.5 goals.

See more La Liga numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 01:19 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

Our main pick is Home Win (1) with 55% confidence. Win probabilities are Real Madrid 54%, draw 35% and Real Sociedad 11%.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

Our model gives both teams to score a 31% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 32% chance and the most likely score is 1-0.

When and where is Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

Wednesday 26 August 2026 at 20:00, Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.