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Jupiler Pro League· Belgium · Regular Season - 5
Charleroi logo

Charleroi

2-3
FT
Union St. Gilloise logo

Union St. Gilloise

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise prediction

📅 Sat 5 Sep 2026 🏟️ Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi 🧑‍⚖️ N. Laforge

Prediction

● Live data
19%
Charleroi
33%
Draw
48%
Union St. Gilloise

Charleroi 19% · draw 33% · Union St. Gilloise 48%. We pick X2 (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 65%, BTTS at 65%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won
Double Chance · X2
X2 Confidence 74%
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All prediction categories

1X2

✓
248%
Fair 2.10Odds —

Home win

✕
Home win19%
Fair 5.32Odds —

Away win

✓
Away win48%
Fair 2.10Odds —

Double chance

✓
X281%
Fair 1.23Odds —

Draw no bet

✓
Away DNB72%
Fair 1.39Odds —

Win either half

✓
Away WEH65%
Fair 1.54Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓
Over 1.585%
Fair 1.18Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓
Over 2.565%
Fair 1.54Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕
Under 3.557%
Fair 1.76Odds —

Both teams to score

✓
GG (Yes)65%
Fair 1.55Odds —

Correct score

✕
1-110%
Fair 10.44Odds —

Banker tip

✓
Over 1.585%
Fair 1.18Odds —

Super single

✓
Over 2.565%
Fair 1.54Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

MarketPickProb.FairOdds
1X2248%2.10—
Home winHome win19%5.32—
Away winAway win48%2.10—
Double chanceX281%1.23—
Draw no betAway DNB72%1.39—
Win either halfAway WEH65%1.54—
Over 1.5Over 1.585%1.18—
Over 2.5Over 2.565%1.54—
Under 3.5Under 3.557%1.76—
BTTSGG (Yes)65%1.55—
Correct score1-110%10.44—
BankerOver 1.585%1.18—
Super singleOver 2.565%1.54—

Form & head to head

Charleroi

WWWW
100%
Form
90%
Attack
80%
Defence
Scored / conceded (last 5)9 / 2
Season W-D-L4-0-0
Clean sheets · failed to score2 · 0

Union St. Gilloise

WDWW
83%
Form
100%
Attack
90%
Defence
Scored / conceded (last 5)11 / 1
Season W-D-L3-1-0
Clean sheets · failed to score3 · 1

Team comparison

Form
55%
45%
Attack
45%
55%
Defence
33%
67%
Poisson model
34%
66%
Head to head
15%
85%
Goals
29%
71%
Overall
35%
64%

Head to head

0
Home wins
2
Draws
8
Away wins
5 Sep 26 Charleroi 2 - 3 Union St. Gilloise
11 Feb 26 Union St. Gilloise 4 - 1 Charleroi
4 Feb 26 Charleroi 0 - 0 Union St. Gilloise
14 Dec 25 Charleroi 1 - 1 Union St. Gilloise
18 Oct 25 Union St. Gilloise 3 - 1 Charleroi
11 Jan 25 Charleroi 1 - 2 Union St. Gilloise

2.90 goals per meeting · BTTS in 7 of 10 · over 2.5 in 6 of 10.

Match statistics

59%Ball Possession41%
20Total Shots17
5Shots on Goal7
5Corner Kicks6
12Fouls17
1Yellow Cards2
5Goalkeeper Saves3
2.18Expected goals (xG)1.24

Key events

  1. 7'🟨 Ondrej Kricfalusi Yellow Card
  2. 9'🟨 Mardochee Nzita Yellow Card
  3. 12'⚽ M. Kone Own Goal
  4. 27'⚽ F. Mbemba Normal Goal
  5. 41'⚽ P. Pflucke Normal Goal
  6. 44'⚽ A. Zorgane Normal Goal
  7. 45'+2🟨 Louis Patris Yellow Card
  8. 49'⚽ K. Van De Perre Normal Goal

Match preview

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise: match preview

Charleroi host Union St. Gilloise in the Jupiler Pro League (Regular Season - 5) at Stade du Pays de Charleroi on Saturday 5 September, kick-off 15:00. The match finished 2-3.

Form guide

Charleroi have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 4 league games, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Union St. Gilloise have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 league games, averaging 2.8 goals scored and 0.3 conceded. At home this season Charleroi have 2 wins from 2 games, while Union St. Gilloise have won 2 of 2 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.4 goals for Charleroi and 1.95 for Union St. Gilloise, 3.35 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 85% chance, over 2.5 65% and both teams to score 65%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Charleroi won 0, Union St. Gilloise won 8 and 2 ended level, with 2.9 goals per game and both teams scoring in 7.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) at 74% confidence. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (85%), X2 (81%), Away DNB (72%).

Key facts

  • Win probabilities: Charleroi 19%, draw 33%, Union St. Gilloise 48%.
  • Expected goals: 1.4 vs 1.95.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Charleroi have 2 clean sheets this season; Union St. Gilloise have 3.
  • API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or Union St. Gilloise.

See more Jupiler Pro League numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 01:19 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) with 74% confidence. Win probabilities are Charleroi 19%, draw 33% and Union St. Gilloise 48%.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model gives both teams to score a 65% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).
How many goals will there be in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.
When and where is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00, Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.
Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

  • Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
  • Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
  • Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
  • Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.

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