Premier League· England · Regular Season - 5

Manchester City

5-3

FT

Sunderland

Manchester City vs Sunderland prediction

📅 Sun 20 Sep 2026 🏟️ Etihad Stadium, Manchester 🧑‍⚖️ Robert Jones, England

Prediction

● Live data

54%

Manchester City

38%

Draw

8%

Sunderland

Manchester City 54% · draw 38% · Sunderland 8%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-0, over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 40%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · 1X

1X Confidence 85%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✓

154%

Fair 1.84Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win54%

Fair 1.84Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win8%

Fair 12.20Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X92%

Fair 1.09Odds —

Draw no bet

✓

Home DNB87%

Fair 1.15Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH68%

Fair 1.48Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.566%

Fair 1.50Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✕

Under 2.560%

Fair 1.66Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.580%

Fair 1.24Odds —

Both teams to score

✕

NG (No)60%

Fair 1.67Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-016%

Fair 6.19Odds —

Banker tip

✓

1X92%

Fair 1.09Odds —

Super single

✓

Over 1.566%

Fair 1.50Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	54%	1.84	—
Home win	Home win	54%	1.84	—
Away win	Away win	8%	12.20	—
Double chance	1X	92%	1.09	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	87%	1.15	—
Win either half	Home WEH	68%	1.48	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	66%	1.50	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	60%	1.66	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	80%	1.24	—
BTTS	NG (No)	60%	1.67	—
Correct score	1-0	16%	6.19	—
Banker	1X	92%	1.09	—
Super single	Over 1.5	66%	1.50	—

Form & head to head

Manchester City

WWWW

100%

Form

62%

Attack

85%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)8 / 2

Season W-D-L4-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score2 · 0

Sunderland

LWDL

33%

Form

23%

Attack

62%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)3 / 5

Season W-D-L1-1-2

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 1

Team comparison

Form

75%

25%

Attack

73%

27%

Defence

71%

29%

Poisson model

79%

21%

Head to head

93%

7%

Goals

89%

11%

Overall

80%

20%

Head to head

9

Home wins

1

Draws

0

Away wins

20 Sep 26 Manchester City 5 - 3 Sunderland

1 Jan 26 Sunderland 0 - 0 Manchester City

6 Dec 25 Manchester City 3 - 0 Sunderland

5 Mar 17 Sunderland 0 - 2 Manchester City

13 Aug 16 Manchester City 2 - 1 Sunderland

2 Feb 16 Sunderland 0 - 1 Manchester City

3.70 goals per meeting · BTTS in 6 of 10 · over 2.5 in 7 of 10.

Match statistics

55%Ball Possession45%

16Total Shots17

6Shots on Goal9

6Corner Kicks5

14Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

4Goalkeeper Saves1

2.82Expected goals (xG)3.57

Key events

8'🟨 Dayann Methalie Yellow Card
9'⚽ E. Fernandez Normal Goal
12'⚽ B. Brobbey Normal Goal
29'⚽ R. Cherki Normal Goal
33'⚽ B. Brobbey Normal Goal
43'⚽ A. Semenyo Normal Goal
57'⚽ A. Semenyo Normal Goal
59'⚽ B. Brobbey Normal Goal
81'⚽ E. Haaland Normal Goal
83'📺 Erling Haaland Goal confirmed

Match preview

Manchester City vs Sunderland: match preview

Manchester City host Sunderland in the Premier League (Regular Season - 5) at Etihad Stadium on Sunday 20 September, kick-off 14:00. The match finished 5-3.

Form guide

Manchester City have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 4 league games, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Sunderland have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 league games, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. At home this season Manchester City have 2 wins from 2 games, while Sunderland have won 0 of 2 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.58 goals for Manchester City and 0.7 for Sunderland, 2.28 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 66% chance, over 2.5 40% and both teams to score 40%. The single most likely score is 1-0.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Manchester City won 9, Sunderland won 0 and 1 ended level, with 3.7 goals per game and both teams scoring in 6.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 85% confidence. The model also leans towards 1X (92%), Home DNB (87%), Under 3.5 (80%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Manchester City 54%, draw 38%, Sunderland 8%.
Expected goals: 1.58 vs 0.7.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Manchester City have 2 clean sheets this season; Sunderland have 1.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : Manchester City or draw.

See more Premier League numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 00:47 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Manchester City vs Sunderland?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 85% confidence. Win probabilities are Manchester City 54%, draw 38% and Sunderland 8%.

Will both teams score in Manchester City vs Sunderland?

Our model gives both teams to score a 40% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Manchester City vs Sunderland?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 40% chance and the most likely score is 1-0.

When and where is Manchester City vs Sunderland?

Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:00, Etihad Stadium, Manchester.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.