Premier League· England · Regular Season - 2

Chelsea

4-3

FT

Brighton

Chelsea vs Brighton prediction

📅 Sun 30 Aug 2026 🏟️ Stamford Bridge, London 🧑‍⚖️ Michael Oliver, England

Prediction

● Live data

13%

Chelsea

30%

Draw

56%

Brighton

Chelsea 13% · draw 30% · Brighton 56%. We pick X2 (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-2, over 2.5 at 83%, BTTS at 74%.

🎯 Our pick✗ Lost

Double Chance · X2

X2 Confidence 74%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✕

256%

Fair 1.77Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win13%

Fair 7.52Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win56%

Fair 1.77Odds —

Double chance

✕

X287%

Fair 1.15Odds —

Draw no bet

✕

Away DNB81%

Fair 1.24Odds —

Win either half

✓

Away WEH80%

Fair 1.25Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.594%

Fair 1.07Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.583%

Fair 1.21Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✓

Over 3.566%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

GG (Yes)74%

Fair 1.36Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-27%

Fair 13.34Odds —

Banker tip

✓

Over 1.594%

Fair 1.07Odds —

Super single

✓

Over 3.566%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	56%	1.77	—
Home win	Home win	13%	7.52	—
Away win	Away win	56%	1.77	—
Double chance	X2	87%	1.15	—
Draw no bet	Away DNB	81%	1.24	—
Win either half	Away WEH	80%	1.25	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	94%	1.07	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	83%	1.21	—
Under 3.5	Over 3.5	66%	1.52	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	74%	1.36	—
Correct score	1-2	7%	13.34	—
Banker	Over 1.5	94%	1.07	—
Super single	Over 3.5	66%	1.52	—

Form & head to head

Chelsea

W

100%

Form

21%

Attack

86%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)3 / 2

Season W-D-L1-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Brighton

W

100%

Form

29%

Attack

100%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)4 / 0

Season W-D-L1-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 0

Team comparison

Form

50%

Attack

43%

57%

Defence

0%

100%

Poisson model

0%

Head to head

20%

80%

Goals

32%

68%

Overall

36%

63%

Head to head

6

Home wins

0

Draws

4

Away wins

30 Aug 26 Chelsea 4 - 3 Brighton

21 Apr 26 Brighton 3 - 0 Chelsea

27 Sep 25 Chelsea 1 - 3 Brighton

14 Feb 25 Brighton 3 - 0 Chelsea

8 Feb 25 Brighton 2 - 1 Chelsea

28 Sep 24 Chelsea 4 - 2 Brighton

4.20 goals per meeting · BTTS in 7 of 10 · over 2.5 in 9 of 10.

Match statistics

26%Ball Possession74%

17Total Shots15

6Shots on Goal6

4Corner Kicks7

6Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

4Goalkeeper Saves1

2.93Expected goals (xG)1.41

Key events

4'⚽ R. Lavia Normal Goal
14'⚽ P. Neto Normal Goal
32'⚽ Joao Pedro Normal Goal
35'⚽ M. Yalcouye Normal Goal
55'🟨 Wesley Fofana Yellow Card
63'⚽ Joao Pedro Own Goal
70'🟨 Lewis Dunk Yellow Card
74'⚽ C. Palmer Normal Goal
89'🟨 Olivier Boscagli Yellow Card
90'+1🟨 Costinha Yellow Card
90'⚽ P. Gross Normal Goal

Match preview

Chelsea vs Brighton: match preview

Chelsea host Brighton in the Premier League (Regular Season - 2) at Stamford Bridge on Sunday 30 August, kick-off 14:00. The match finished 4-3.

Form guide

Chelsea have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 1 league game, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Brighton have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 1 league game, averaging 4.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.5 goals for Chelsea and 3 for Brighton, 4.50 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 94% chance, over 2.5 83% and both teams to score 74%. The single most likely score is 1-2.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Chelsea won 6, Brighton won 4 and 0 ended level, with 4.2 goals per game and both teams scoring in 7.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) at 74% confidence. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (94%), X2 (87%), Over 2.5 (83%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Chelsea 13%, draw 30%, Brighton 56%.
Expected goals: 1.5 vs 3.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Chelsea have 0 clean sheets this season; Brighton have 1.
API-Football model advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Brighton and +1.5 goals.

See more Premier League numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 01:19 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Chelsea vs Brighton?

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) with 74% confidence. Win probabilities are Chelsea 13%, draw 30% and Brighton 56%.

Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Brighton?

Our model gives both teams to score a 74% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Brighton?

We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 83% chance and the most likely score is 1-2.

When and where is Chelsea vs Brighton?

Sunday 30 August 2026 at 14:00, Stamford Bridge, London.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.