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Ligue 1· France · Regular Season - 5
Toulouse logo

Toulouse

3-2
FT
Le Havre logo

Le Havre

Toulouse vs Le Havre prediction

📅 Sat 19 Sep 2026 🏟️ Stadium Municipal, Toulouse 🧑‍⚖️ Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France

Prediction

● Live data
27%
Toulouse
32%
Draw
40%
Le Havre

Toulouse 27% · draw 32% · Le Havre 40%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 0-1, over 2.5 at 31%, BTTS at 35%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won
Double Chance · 1X
1X Confidence 61%
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All prediction categories

1X2

✕
240%
Fair 2.47Odds —

Home win

✓
Home win27%
Fair 3.66Odds —

Away win

✕
Away win40%
Fair 2.47Odds —

Double chance

✕
X273%
Fair 1.38Odds —

Draw no bet

✕
Away DNB60%
Fair 1.68Odds —

Win either half

✕
Away WEH60%
Fair 1.66Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓
Over 1.558%
Fair 1.73Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✕
Under 2.569%
Fair 1.44Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕
Under 3.587%
Fair 1.15Odds —

Both teams to score

✕
NG (No)65%
Fair 1.54Odds —

Correct score

✕
0-118%
Fair 5.48Odds —

Banker tip

✕
Under 3.587%
Fair 1.15Odds —

Super single

✕
NG (No)65%
Fair 1.54Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

MarketPickProb.FairOdds
1X2240%2.47—
Home winHome win27%3.66—
Away winAway win40%2.47—
Double chanceX273%1.38—
Draw no betAway DNB60%1.68—
Win either halfAway WEH60%1.66—
Over 1.5Over 1.558%1.73—
Over 2.5Under 2.569%1.44—
Under 3.5Under 3.587%1.15—
BTTSNG (No)65%1.54—
Correct score0-118%5.48—
BankerUnder 3.587%1.15—
Super singleNG (No)65%1.54—

Form & head to head

Toulouse

LDLD
17%
Form
31%
Attack
46%
Defence
Scored / conceded (last 5)4 / 7
Season W-D-L0-2-2
Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 2

Le Havre

LDLD
17%
Form
15%
Attack
69%
Defence
Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 4
Season W-D-L0-2-2
Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 2

Team comparison

Form
50%
50%
Attack
67%
33%
Defence
36%
64%
Poisson model
0%
100%
Head to head
50%
50%
Goals
64%
36%
Overall
53%
46%

Head to head

5
Home wins
2
Draws
3
Away wins
19 Sep 26 Toulouse 3 - 2 Le Havre
15 Feb 26 Le Havre 2 - 1 Toulouse
2 Nov 25 Toulouse 0 - 0 Le Havre
23 Feb 25 Le Havre 1 - 4 Toulouse
15 Sep 24 Toulouse 2 - 0 Le Havre
10 Mar 24 Le Havre 1 - 0 Toulouse

2.60 goals per meeting · BTTS in 5 of 10 · over 2.5 in 5 of 10.

Match statistics

53%Ball Possession47%
14Total Shots18
5Shots on Goal7
6Corner Kicks7
17Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
5Goalkeeper Saves2
1.95Expected goals (xG)2.34

Key events

  1. 34'🟨 Christ Tapé Yellow Card
  2. 49'⚽ C. Tengstedt Penalty
  3. 51'⚽ C. Tengstedt Normal Goal
  4. 58'🟨 Niko Sigur Yellow Card
  5. 71'⚽ J. Maja Normal Goal
  6. 74'🟨 Seny Koumbassa Yellow Card
  7. 79'⚽ T. Jorgensen Normal Goal
  8. 81'🟨 Sota Nakamura Yellow Card
  9. 88'⚽ A. Samatta Normal Goal

Match preview

Toulouse vs Le Havre: match preview

Toulouse host Le Havre in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 5) at Stadium Municipal on Saturday 19 September, kick-off 19:45. The match finished 3-2.

Form guide

Toulouse have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 league games, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Le Havre have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 league games, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. At home this season Toulouse have 0 wins from 2 games, while Le Havre have won 0 of 1 game on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 0.67 goals for Toulouse and 1.27 for Le Havre, 1.94 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 58% chance, over 2.5 31% and both teams to score 35%. The single most likely score is 0-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Toulouse won 5, Le Havre won 3 and 2 ended level, with 2.6 goals per game and both teams scoring in 5.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 61% confidence. The model also leans towards Under 3.5 (87%), X2 (73%), Under 2.5 (69%).

Key facts

  • Win probabilities: Toulouse 27%, draw 32%, Le Havre 40%.
  • Expected goals: 0.67 vs 1.27.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Toulouse have 0 clean sheets this season; Le Havre have 1.
  • API-Football model advice: Combo Double chance : Toulouse or draw and -3.5 goals.

See more Ligue 1 numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 01:19 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 61% confidence. Win probabilities are Toulouse 27%, draw 32% and Le Havre 40%.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our model gives both teams to score a 35% chance, so the lean is NG (No).
How many goals will there be in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 31% chance and the most likely score is 0-1.
When and where is Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Saturday 19 September 2026 at 19:45, Stadium Municipal, Toulouse.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.
Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

  • Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
  • Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
  • Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
  • Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.

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