Ligue 1· France · Regular Season - 3

Marseille

2-3

FT

Paris FC

Marseille vs Paris FC prediction

📅 Sun 6 Sep 2026 🏟️ CEPAC Vélodrome, Marseille 🧑‍⚖️ Clement Turpin, France

Prediction

● Live data

37%

Marseille

37%

Draw

26%

Paris FC

Marseille 37% · draw 37% · Paris FC 26%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 0-1, over 2.5 at 39%, BTTS at 45%.

🎯 Our pick✗ Lost

Double Chance · 1X

1X Confidence 73%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✕

137%

Fair 2.68Odds —

Home win

✕

Home win37%

Fair 2.68Odds —

Away win

✓

Away win26%

Fair 3.85Odds —

Double chance

✕

1X74%

Fair 1.35Odds —

Draw no bet

✕

Home DNB59%

Fair 1.70Odds —

Win either half

✓

Away WEH54%

Fair 1.85Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.566%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✕

Under 2.561%

Fair 1.64Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.581%

Fair 1.24Odds —

Both teams to score

✕

NG (No)55%

Fair 1.82Odds —

Correct score

✕

0-113%

Fair 7.59Odds —

Banker tip

✕

Under 3.581%

Fair 1.24Odds —

Super single

✓

Over 1.566%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	37%	2.68	—
Home win	Home win	37%	2.68	—
Away win	Away win	26%	3.85	—
Double chance	1X	74%	1.35	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	59%	1.70	—
Win either half	Away WEH	54%	1.85	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	66%	1.52	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	61%	1.64	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	81%	1.24	—
BTTS	NG (No)	55%	1.82	—
Correct score	0-1	13%	7.59	—
Banker	Under 3.5	81%	1.24	—
Super single	Over 1.5	66%	1.52	—

Form & head to head

Marseille

WL

50%

Form

24%

Attack

88%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)4 / 2

Season W-D-L1-0-1

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 1

Paris FC

DW

67%

Form

18%

Attack

100%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)3 / 0

Season W-D-L1-1-0

Clean sheets · failed to score2 · 1

Team comparison

Form

43%

57%

Attack

57%

43%

Defence

0%

100%

Poisson model

0%

Head to head

80%

20%

Goals

64%

36%

Overall

61%

39%

Head to head

1

Home wins

1

Draws

1

Away wins

6 Sep 26 Marseille 2 - 3 Paris FC

31 Jan 26 Paris FC 2 - 2 Marseille

23 Aug 25 Marseille 5 - 2 Paris FC

5.33 goals per meeting · BTTS in 3 of 3 · over 2.5 in 3 of 3.

Match statistics

61%Ball Possession39%

14Total Shots18

5Shots on Goal7

5Corner Kicks4

10Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

4Goalkeeper Saves3

1.42Expected goals (xG)3.29

Key events

1'⚽ L. Sinayoko Normal Goal
8'⚽ A. Gouiri Normal Goal
19'⚽ L. Sinayoko Normal Goal
53'⚽ A. Gouiri Normal Goal
65'🟨 Rudy Matondo Yellow Card
83'📺 Moses Simon Penalty confirmed
86'⚽ L. Sinayoko Penalty
87'🟨 Lassine Sinayoko Yellow Card

Match preview

Marseille vs Paris FC: match preview

Marseille host Paris FC in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 3) at CEPAC Vélodrome on Sunday 6 September, kick-off 19:45. The match finished 2-3.

Form guide

Marseille have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 2 league games, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Paris FC have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 2 league games, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded. At home this season Marseille have 1 win from 1 game, while Paris FC have won 0 of 1 game on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1 goals for Marseille and 1.25 for Paris FC, 2.25 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 66% chance, over 2.5 39% and both teams to score 45%. The single most likely score is 0-1.

Head to head

In their last 3 meetings, Marseille won 1, Paris FC won 1 and 1 ended level, with 5.3 goals per game and both teams scoring in 3.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 73% confidence. The model also leans towards Under 3.5 (81%), 1X (74%), Over 1.5 (66%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Marseille 37%, draw 37%, Paris FC 26%.
Expected goals: 1 vs 1.25.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 3 meetings.
Marseille have 1 clean sheets this season; Paris FC have 2.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : Marseille or draw.

See more Ligue 1 numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 01:20 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Marseille vs Paris FC?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 73% confidence. Win probabilities are Marseille 37%, draw 37% and Paris FC 26%.

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Paris FC?

Our model gives both teams to score a 45% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Paris FC?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance and the most likely score is 0-1.

When and where is Marseille vs Paris FC?

Sunday 6 September 2026 at 19:45, CEPAC Vélodrome, Marseille.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.