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Eredivisie· Netherlands · Regular Season - 3
Ajax logo

Ajax

5-1
FT
Willem II logo

Willem II

Ajax vs Willem II prediction

📅 Tue 15 Sep 2026 🏟️ Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam 🧑‍⚖️ Allard Lindhout, Netherlands

Prediction

● Live data
54%
Ajax
35%
Draw
11%
Willem II

Ajax 54% · draw 35% · Willem II 11%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 2-1, over 2.5 at 74%, BTTS at 69%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won
Double Chance · 1X
1X Confidence 83%
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All prediction categories

1X2

✓
154%
Fair 1.84Odds —

Home win

✓
Home win54%
Fair 1.84Odds —

Away win

✕
Away win11%
Fair 9.11Odds —

Double chance

✓
1X89%
Fair 1.12Odds —

Draw no bet

✓
Home DNB83%
Fair 1.20Odds —

Win either half

✓
Home WEH72%
Fair 1.38Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓
Over 1.590%
Fair 1.12Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓
Over 2.574%
Fair 1.36Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✓
Over 3.553%
Fair 1.88Odds —

Both teams to score

✓
GG (Yes)69%
Fair 1.45Odds —

Correct score

✕
2-19%
Fair 11.18Odds —

Banker tip

✓
Over 1.590%
Fair 1.12Odds —

Super single

✓
154%
Fair 1.84Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

MarketPickProb.FairOdds
1X2154%1.84—
Home winHome win54%1.84—
Away winAway win11%9.11—
Double chance1X89%1.12—
Draw no betHome DNB83%1.20—
Win either halfHome WEH72%1.38—
Over 1.5Over 1.590%1.12—
Over 2.5Over 2.574%1.36—
Under 3.5Over 3.553%1.88—
BTTSGG (Yes)69%1.45—
Correct score2-19%11.18—
BankerOver 1.590%1.12—
Super single154%1.84—

Form & head to head

Ajax

WDWLW
67%
Form
78%
Attack
67%
Defence
Scored / conceded (last 5)14 / 6
Season W-D-L3-1-1
Clean sheets · failed to score2 · 0

Willem II

LLDLD
13%
Form
28%
Attack
22%
Defence
Scored / conceded (last 5)5 / 14
Season W-D-L0-2-3
Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 1

Team comparison

Form
83%
17%
Attack
74%
26%
Defence
70%
30%
Poisson model
67%
33%
Head to head
100%
0%
Goals
86%
14%
Overall
76%
24%

Head to head

7
Home wins
1
Draws
1
Away wins
15 Sep 26 Ajax 5 - 1 Willem II
13 Apr 25 Willem II 1 - 2 Ajax
27 Oct 24 Ajax 1 - 0 Willem II
19 Feb 22 Willem II 0 - 1 Ajax
2 Dec 21 Ajax 5 - 0 Willem II
28 Jan 21 Ajax 3 - 1 Willem II

3.11 goals per meeting · BTTS in 4 of 9 · over 2.5 in 5 of 9.

Match statistics

70%Ball Possession30%
33Total Shots10
12Shots on Goal4
14Corner Kicks2
6Fouls3
3Goalkeeper Saves7
3.79Expected goals (xG)1.58

Key events

  1. 41'⚽ D. Klaassen Normal Goal
  2. 45'⚽ J. Brandt Normal Goal
  3. 69'⚽ V. Tsygankov Normal Goal
  4. 74'⚽ O. Gloukh Normal Goal
  5. 76'⚽ A. Ciranni Normal Goal
  6. 87'⚽ K. Dolberg Normal Goal

Match preview

Ajax vs Willem II: match preview

Ajax host Willem II in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 3) at Johan Cruijff Arena on Tuesday 15 September, kick-off 19:00. The match finished 5-1.

Form guide

Ajax have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league games, averaging 2.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Willem II have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.8 conceded. At home this season Ajax have 0 wins from 2 games, while Willem II have won 0 of 2 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 2.4 goals for Ajax and 1.43 for Willem II, 3.83 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 90% chance, over 2.5 74% and both teams to score 69%. The single most likely score is 2-1.

Head to head

In their last 9 meetings, Ajax won 7, Willem II won 1 and 1 ended level, with 3.1 goals per game and both teams scoring in 4.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 83% confidence. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (90%), 1X (89%), Home DNB (83%).

Key facts

  • Win probabilities: Ajax 54%, draw 35%, Willem II 11%.
  • Expected goals: 2.4 vs 1.43.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Ajax have 2 clean sheets this season; Willem II have 0.
  • API-Football model advice: Double chance : Ajax or draw.

See more Eredivisie numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 01:19 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ajax vs Willem II?
Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 83% confidence. Win probabilities are Ajax 54%, draw 35% and Willem II 11%.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Willem II?
Our model gives both teams to score a 69% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Willem II?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 74% chance and the most likely score is 2-1.
When and where is Ajax vs Willem II?
Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 19:00, Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.
Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

  • Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
  • Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
  • Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
  • Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.

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