Serie A· Italy · Regular Season - 4

Venezia

2-4

FT

Fiorentina

Venezia vs Fiorentina prediction

📅 Fri 11 Sep 2026 🏟️ Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice 🧑‍⚖️ Francesco Fourneau, Italy

Prediction

● Live data

48%

Venezia

34%

Draw

18%

Fiorentina

Venezia 48% · draw 34% · Fiorentina 18%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 61%.

🎯 Our pick✗ Lost

Double Chance · 1X

1X Confidence 73%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✕

148%

Fair 2.10Odds —

Home win

✕

Home win48%

Fair 2.10Odds —

Away win

✓

Away win18%

Fair 5.41Odds —

Double chance

✕

1X82%

Fair 1.23Odds —

Draw no bet

✕

Home DNB72%

Fair 1.39Odds —

Win either half

✕

Home WEH64%

Fair 1.56Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.582%

Fair 1.22Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.561%

Fair 1.64Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.561%

Fair 1.63Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

GG (Yes)61%

Fair 1.63Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-110%

Fair 9.70Odds —

Banker tip

✓

Over 1.582%

Fair 1.22Odds —

Super single

✕

Home WEH64%

Fair 1.56Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	48%	2.10	—
Home win	Home win	48%	2.10	—
Away win	Away win	18%	5.41	—
Double chance	1X	82%	1.23	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	72%	1.39	—
Win either half	Home WEH	64%	1.56	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	82%	1.22	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.64	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	61%	1.63	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	61%	1.63	—
Correct score	1-1	10%	9.70	—
Banker	Over 1.5	82%	1.22	—
Super single	Home WEH	64%	1.56	—

Form & head to head

Venezia

LLL

0%

Form

17%

Attack

42%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 7

Season W-D-L0-0-3

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 2

Fiorentina

LLL

0%

Form

8%

Attack

25%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)1 / 9

Season W-D-L0-0-3

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 2

Team comparison

Form

0%

Attack

67%

33%

Defence

56%

44%

Poisson model

0%

Head to head

64%

36%

Goals

60%

40%

Overall

61%

38%

Head to head

2

Home wins

1

Draws

2

Away wins

11 Sep 26 Venezia 2 - 4 Fiorentina

12 May 25 Venezia 2 - 1 Fiorentina

25 Aug 24 Fiorentina 0 - 0 Venezia

16 Apr 22 Fiorentina 1 - 0 Venezia

18 Oct 21 Venezia 1 - 0 Fiorentina

2.20 goals per meeting · BTTS in 2 of 5 · over 2.5 in 2 of 5.

Match statistics

63%Ball Possession37%

10Total Shots19

3Shots on Goal10

2Corner Kicks4

11Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

6Goalkeeper Saves1

0.49Expected goals (xG)3.31

Key events

22'⚽ A. Adams Normal Goal
29'⚽ F. Mastantuono Normal Goal
30'⚽ F. Mastantuono Normal Goal
38'🟨 Joel Schingtienne Yellow Card
66'⚽ M. Pellegrino Normal Goal
72'🟨 Alieu Njie Yellow Card
73'🟨 Simon Sohm Yellow Card
84'⚽ F. Mastantuono Normal Goal
86'⚽ A. Hainaut Normal Goal

Match preview

Venezia vs Fiorentina: match preview

Venezia host Fiorentina in the Serie A (Regular Season - 4) at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo on Friday 11 September, kick-off 19:45. The match finished 2-4.

Form guide

Venezia have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 3 league games, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded. Fiorentina have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 3 league games, averaging 0.3 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. At home this season Venezia have 0 wins from 1 game, while Fiorentina have won 0 of 1 game on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.85 goals for Venezia and 1.3 for Fiorentina, 3.15 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 82% chance, over 2.5 61% and both teams to score 61%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 5 meetings, Venezia won 2, Fiorentina won 2 and 1 ended level, with 2.2 goals per game and both teams scoring in 2.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 73% confidence. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (82%), 1X (82%), Home DNB (72%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Venezia 48%, draw 34%, Fiorentina 18%.
Expected goals: 1.85 vs 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Venezia have 0 clean sheets this season; Fiorentina have 0.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : Venezia or draw.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 01:19 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Venezia vs Fiorentina?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 73% confidence. Win probabilities are Venezia 48%, draw 34% and Fiorentina 18%.

Will both teams score in Venezia vs Fiorentina?

Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Venezia vs Fiorentina?

We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.

When and where is Venezia vs Fiorentina?

Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:45, Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.