Serie A· Italy · Regular Season - 3

Inter

3-2

FT

Napoli

Inter vs Napoli prediction

📅 Sat 5 Sep 2026 🏟️ San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano 🧑‍⚖️ Simone Sozza, Italy

Prediction

● Live data

50%

Inter

34%

Draw

16%

Napoli

Inter 50% · draw 34% · Napoli 16%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-0, over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 52%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · 1X

1X Confidence 71%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✓

150%

Fair 2.00Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win50%

Fair 2.00Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win16%

Fair 6.35Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X84%

Fair 1.19Odds —

Draw no bet

✓

Home DNB76%

Fair 1.31Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH67%

Fair 1.50Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.576%

Fair 1.32Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.552%

Fair 1.93Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.570%

Fair 1.42Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

GG (Yes)52%

Fair 1.91Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-011%

Fair 8.94Odds —

Banker tip

✓

1X84%

Fair 1.19Odds —

Super single

✓

GG (Yes)52%

Fair 1.91Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	50%	2.00	—
Home win	Home win	50%	2.00	—
Away win	Away win	16%	6.35	—
Double chance	1X	84%	1.19	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	76%	1.31	—
Win either half	Home WEH	67%	1.50	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	76%	1.32	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.93	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	70%	1.42	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	52%	1.91	—
Correct score	1-0	11%	8.94	—
Banker	1X	84%	1.19	—
Super single	GG (Yes)	52%	1.91	—

Form & head to head

Inter

WW

100%

Form

36%

Attack

93%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)5 / 1

Season W-D-L2-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 0

Napoli

WL

50%

Form

21%

Attack

86%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)3 / 2

Season W-D-L1-0-1

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 0

Team comparison

Form

67%

33%

Attack

63%

38%

Defence

67%

33%

Poisson model

0%

100%

Head to head

36%

64%

Goals

43%

57%

Overall

55%

45%

Head to head

4

Home wins

4

Draws

2

Away wins

5 Sep 26 Inter 3 - 2 Napoli

11 Jan 26 Inter 2 - 2 Napoli

25 Oct 25 Napoli 3 - 1 Inter

1 Mar 25 Napoli 1 - 1 Inter

10 Nov 24 Inter 1 - 1 Napoli

17 Mar 24 Inter 1 - 1 Napoli

2.80 goals per meeting · BTTS in 7 of 10 · over 2.5 in 5 of 10.

Match statistics

63%Ball Possession37%

29Total Shots16

8Shots on Goal7

10Corner Kicks5

7Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

6Goalkeeper Saves5

3.86Expected goals (xG)2.43

Key events

35'🟨 Antonio Vergara Yellow Card
50'⚽ Matteo Politano Normal Goal
53'⚽ Rasmus Hojlund Normal Goal
56'⚽ Lautaro Martínez Normal Goal
68'🟨 Lautaro Martínez Yellow Card
77'🟨 Rafael Marin Zamora Yellow Card
82'⚽ Marcus Thuram Normal Goal
90'+1⚽ Lautaro Martínez Normal Goal
90'+2🟨 Cristian Eugen Chivu Yellow Card

Match preview

Inter vs Napoli: match preview

Inter host Napoli in the Serie A (Regular Season - 3) at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza on Saturday 5 September, kick-off 17:00. The match finished 3-2.

Form guide

Inter have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 2 league games, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Napoli have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 2 league games, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. At home this season Inter have 1 win from 1 game, while Napoli have won 1 of 1 game on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.75 goals for Inter and 1 for Napoli, 2.75 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 76% chance, over 2.5 52% and both teams to score 52%. The single most likely score is 1-0.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Inter won 4, Napoli won 2 and 4 ended level, with 2.8 goals per game and both teams scoring in 7.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 71% confidence. The model also leans towards 1X (84%), Home DNB (76%), Over 1.5 (76%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Inter 50%, draw 34%, Napoli 16%.
Expected goals: 1.75 vs 1.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Inter have 1 clean sheets this season; Napoli have 1.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : Inter or draw.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 01:17 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Inter vs Napoli?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 71% confidence. Win probabilities are Inter 50%, draw 34% and Napoli 16%.

Will both teams score in Inter vs Napoli?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Inter vs Napoli?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance and the most likely score is 1-0.

When and where is Inter vs Napoli?

Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:00, San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.