Serie A· Italy · Regular Season - 1

AS Roma

4-0

FT

Fiorentina

AS Roma vs Fiorentina prediction

📅 Mon 24 Aug 2026 🏟️ Stadio Olimpico, Rome 🧑‍⚖️ Matteo Marcenaro, Italy

Prediction

● Live data

30%

AS Roma

57%

Draw

13%

Fiorentina

AS Roma 30% · draw 57% · Fiorentina 13%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 0-0, over 2.5 at 1%, BTTS at 3%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · 1X

1X Confidence 74%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✕

X57%

Fair 1.74Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win30%

Fair 3.33Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win13%

Fair 7.96Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X87%

Fair 1.14Odds —

Draw no bet

✓

Home DNB71%

Fair 1.42Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH17%

Fair 6.04Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✕

Under 1.594%

Fair 1.07Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✕

Under 2.599%

Fair 1.01Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.5100%

Fair 1.00Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

NG (No)97%

Fair 1.03Odds —

Correct score

✕

0-067%

Fair 1.49Odds —

Banker tip

✕

Under 3.5100%

Fair 1.00Odds —

Super single

✕

X57%

Fair 1.74Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	X	57%	1.74	—
Home win	Home win	30%	3.33	—
Away win	Away win	13%	7.96	—
Double chance	1X	87%	1.14	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	71%	1.42	—
Win either half	Home WEH	17%	6.04	—
Over 1.5	Under 1.5	94%	1.07	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	99%	1.01	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	100%	1.00	—
BTTS	NG (No)	97%	1.03	—
Correct score	0-0	67%	1.49	—
Banker	Under 3.5	100%	1.00	—
Super single	X	57%	1.74	—

Form & head to head

AS Roma

0%

Form

0%

Attack

0%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)0 / 0

Season W-D-L0-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Fiorentina

0%

Form

0%

Attack

0%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)0 / 0

Season W-D-L0-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Team comparison

Form

0%

Attack

0%

Defence

0%

Poisson model

0%

Head to head

71%

29%

Goals

56%

44%

Overall

63%

36%

Head to head

5

Home wins

2

Draws

3

Away wins

24 Aug 26 AS Roma 4 - 0 Fiorentina

4 May 26 AS Roma 4 - 0 Fiorentina

5 Oct 25 Fiorentina 1 - 2 AS Roma

4 May 25 AS Roma 1 - 0 Fiorentina

27 Oct 24 Fiorentina 5 - 1 AS Roma

10 Mar 24 Fiorentina 2 - 2 AS Roma

3.10 goals per meeting · BTTS in 5 of 10 · over 2.5 in 6 of 10.

Match statistics

61%Ball Possession39%

17Total Shots9

8Shots on Goal4

2Corner Kicks3

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

4Goalkeeper Saves4

3.07Expected goals (xG)0.35

Key events

27'⚽ D. Malen Normal Goal
30'🟨 Nicolò Fagioli Yellow Card
39'🟨 Mario Hermoso Yellow Card
49'🟨 Manu Koné Yellow Card
52'⚽ D. Malen Normal Goal
60'⚽ D. Malen Normal Goal
63'🟨 Mateo Pellegrino Yellow Card
86'⚽ N. Pisilli Normal Goal

Match preview

AS Roma vs Fiorentina: match preview

AS Roma host Fiorentina in the Serie A (Regular Season - 1) at Stadio Olimpico on Monday 24 August, kick-off 19:45. The match finished 4-0.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 0.2 goals for AS Roma and 0.2 for Fiorentina, 0.40 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 6% chance, over 2.5 1% and both teams to score 3%. The single most likely score is 0-0.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, AS Roma won 5, Fiorentina won 3 and 2 ended level, with 3.1 goals per game and both teams scoring in 5.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 74% confidence. The model also leans towards Under 3.5 (100%), Under 2.5 (99%), NG (No) (97%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: AS Roma 30%, draw 57%, Fiorentina 13%.
Expected goals: 0.2 vs 0.2.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
AS Roma have 0 clean sheets this season; Fiorentina have 0.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : AS Roma or draw.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 01:19 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 74% confidence. Win probabilities are AS Roma 30%, draw 57% and Fiorentina 13%.

Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

Our model gives both teams to score a 3% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

We expect about 0.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 1% chance and the most likely score is 0-0.

When and where is AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

Monday 24 August 2026 at 19:45, Stadio Olimpico, Rome.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.