1. Division· Kazakhstan · Regular Season - 24

Shakhter Karagandy

11:00

🕒 11:00

Akademiya Ontustik

Shakhter Karagandy vs Akademiya Ontustik prediction

📅 Thu 8 Oct 2026 🏟️ Shakhter Stadion, Karaganda

Prediction

● Live data

53%

Shakhter Karagandy

34%

Draw

13%

Akademiya Ontustik

Shakhter Karagandy 53% · draw 34% · Akademiya Ontustik 13%. We pick Over 2.5 (2.5 Goals). Most likely score 1-0, over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 48%.

🎯 Our pick

2.5 Goals · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.48 Confidence 68%

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All prediction categories

1X2

Value

153%

Fair 1.88Odds 9.00

Home win

Value

Home win53%

Fair 1.88Odds 9.00

Away win

Away win13%

Fair 7.54Odds —

Double chance

1X87%

Fair 1.15Odds —

Draw no bet

Home DNB80%

Fair 1.25Odds —

Win either half

Home WEH72%

Fair 1.40Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.575%

Fair 1.32Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.551%

Fair 1.96Odds 1.48

Over/Under 3.5

Value

Under 3.571%

Fair 1.41Odds 1.51

Both teams to score

NG (No)52%

Fair 1.94Odds 1.83

Correct score

1-012%

Fair 8.12Odds 7.90

Banker tip

1X87%

Fair 1.15Odds —

Super single

Value

Under 3.571%

Fair 1.41Odds 1.51

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner

11.23

X5.35

29.00

Double chance

1X—

12—

X23.28

Goals 2.5

Over1.48

Under2.40

Both teams to score

Yes1.83

No1.83

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	53%	1.88	9.00	Value
Home win	Home win	53%	1.88	9.00	Value
Away win	Away win	13%	7.54	—
Double chance	1X	87%	1.15	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	80%	1.25	—
Win either half	Home WEH	72%	1.40	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	75%	1.32	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.96	1.48
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	71%	1.41	1.51	Value
BTTS	NG (No)	52%	1.94	1.83
Correct score	1-0	12%	8.12	7.90
Banker	1X	87%	1.15	—
Super single	Under 3.5	71%	1.41	1.51	Value

Form & head to head

Shakhter Karagandy

WWWWD

87%

Form

72%

Attack

94%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)13 / 1

Season W-D-L20-2-1

Clean sheets · failed to score18 · 2

Akademiya Ontustik

WWWWD

87%

Form

44%

Attack

78%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)8 / 4

Season W-D-L13-4-6

Clean sheets · failed to score6 · 4

Team comparison

Form

50%

Attack

62%

38%

Defence

80%

20%

Poisson model

95%

5%

Head to head

100%

0%

Goals

80%

20%

Overall

73%

26%

Head to head

3

Home wins

0

Draws

0

Away wins

2 Jul 26 Akademiya Ontustik 1 - 2 Shakhter Karagandy

25 Sep 25 Akademiya Ontustik 0 - 2 Shakhter Karagandy

27 Jun 25 Shakhter Karagandy 4 - 1 Akademiya Ontustik

3.33 goals per meeting · BTTS in 2 of 3 · over 2.5 in 2 of 3.

Match preview

Shakhter Karagandy vs Akademiya Ontustik: match preview

Shakhter Karagandy host Akademiya Ontustik in the 1. Division (Regular Season - 24) at Shakhter Stadion on Thursday 8 October, kick-off 11:00.

Form guide

Shakhter Karagandy have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 league games, averaging 2.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded. Akademiya Ontustik have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. At home this season Shakhter Karagandy have 10 wins from 11 games, while Akademiya Ontustik have won 6 of 11 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.87 goals for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.85 for Akademiya Ontustik, 2.72 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 75% chance, over 2.5 51% and both teams to score 48%. The single most likely score is 1-0.

Head to head

In their last 3 meetings, Shakhter Karagandy won 3, Akademiya Ontustik won 0 and 0 ended level, with 3.3 goals per game and both teams scoring in 2.

Our verdict

Our main pick is 2.5 Goals (Over 2.5) at 68% confidence, priced at 1.48. The model also leans towards 1X (87%), Home DNB (80%), Over 1.5 (75%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Shakhter Karagandy 53%, draw 34%, Akademiya Ontustik 13%.
Expected goals: 1.87 vs 0.85.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 3 meetings.
Shakhter Karagandy have 18 clean sheets this season; Akademiya Ontustik have 6.
API-Football model advice: Winner : Shakhter Karagandy.

See more 1. Division numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 00:51 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Shakhter Karagandy vs Akademiya Ontustik?

Our main pick is 2.5 Goals (Over 2.5) with 68% confidence. Win probabilities are Shakhter Karagandy 53%, draw 34% and Akademiya Ontustik 13%.

Will both teams score in Shakhter Karagandy vs Akademiya Ontustik?

Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Shakhter Karagandy vs Akademiya Ontustik?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance and the most likely score is 1-0.

When and where is Shakhter Karagandy vs Akademiya Ontustik?

Thursday 8 October 2026 at 11:00, Shakhter Stadion, Karaganda.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.