Serie B· Brazil · Regular Season - 32

America Mineiro

0-1

19'

Fortaleza EC

America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC prediction

📅 Thu 8 Oct 2026 🏟️ Arena Independência, Bello Harisanta 🧑‍⚖️ Rafael Rodrigo Klein

Prediction

● Live data

17%

America Mineiro

37%

Draw

46%

Fortaleza EC

America Mineiro 17% · draw 37% · Fortaleza EC 46%. We pick Away Win (Away Win). Most likely score 0-1, over 2.5 at 32%, BTTS at 38%.

🎯 Our pick

Away Win · Away Win

Away Win @ 1.86 Confidence 54%

Get today's VIP slip

All prediction categories

1X2

246%

Fair 2.19Odds 1.30

Home win

Home win17%

Fair 5.94Odds 1.91

Away win

Away win46%

Fair 2.19Odds 1.30

Double chance

Value

X283%

Fair 1.20Odds 1.25

Draw no bet

Away DNB73%

Fair 1.37Odds —

Win either half

Away WEH57%

Fair 1.76Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.559%

Fair 1.68Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

Under 2.568%

Fair 1.48Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

Under 3.586%

Fair 1.17Odds —

Both teams to score

Value

NG (No)62%

Fair 1.62Odds 1.85

Correct score

0-117%

Fair 6.06Odds 6.00

Banker tip

Under 3.586%

Fair 1.17Odds —

Super single

Value

NG (No)62%

Fair 1.62Odds 1.85

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner

13.80

X3.25

21.91

Double chance

1X1.80

121.30

X21.25

Both teams to score

Yes1.85

No1.85

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	46%	2.19	1.30
Home win	Home win	17%	5.94	1.91
Away win	Away win	46%	2.19	1.30
Double chance	X2	83%	1.20	1.25	Value
Draw no bet	Away DNB	73%	1.37	—
Win either half	Away WEH	57%	1.76	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	59%	1.68	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	68%	1.48	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	86%	1.17	—
BTTS	NG (No)	62%	1.62	1.85	Value
Correct score	0-1	17%	6.06	6.00
Banker	Under 3.5	86%	1.17	—
Super single	NG (No)	62%	1.62	1.85	Value

Form & head to head

America Mineiro

WLLLL

20%

Form

18%

Attack

36%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 7

Season W-D-L4-5-22

Clean sheets · failed to score4 · 14

Fortaleza EC

WDWDD

60%

Form

64%

Attack

55%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)7 / 5

Season W-D-L14-11-6

Clean sheets · failed to score13 · 8

Team comparison

Form

25%

75%

Attack

22%

78%

Defence

42%

58%

Poisson model

33%

67%

Head to head

40%

60%

Goals

50%

Overall

35%

64%

Head to head

3

Home wins

0

Draws

7

Away wins

17 Jun 26 Fortaleza EC 0 - 3 America Mineiro

8 Oct 23 Fortaleza EC 3 - 2 America Mineiro

31 Aug 23 Fortaleza EC 2 - 1 America Mineiro

24 Aug 23 America Mineiro 1 - 3 Fortaleza EC

20 May 23 America Mineiro 2 - 1 Fortaleza EC

16 Oct 22 America Mineiro 1 - 2 Fortaleza EC

3.40 goals per meeting · BTTS in 7 of 10 · over 2.5 in 9 of 10.

Match statistics

66%Ball Possession34%

0Total Shots4

0Shots on Goal2

0Corner Kicks1

2Fouls3

0Yellow Cards0

1Goalkeeper Saves0

Key events

3'⚽ Lucas Sasha Normal Goal

Match preview

America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC: match preview

America Mineiro host Fortaleza EC in the Serie B (Regular Season - 32) at Arena Independência on Thursday 8 October, kick-off 00:30.

Form guide

America Mineiro have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league games, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Fortaleza EC have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. At home this season America Mineiro have 3 wins from 15 games, while Fortaleza EC have won 5 of 15 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 0.78 goals for America Mineiro and 1.22 for Fortaleza EC, 2.00 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 59% chance, over 2.5 32% and both teams to score 38%. The single most likely score is 0-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, America Mineiro won 3, Fortaleza EC won 7 and 0 ended level, with 3.4 goals per game and both teams scoring in 7.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Away Win (Away Win) at 54% confidence, priced at 1.86. The model also leans towards Under 3.5 (86%), X2 (83%), Away DNB (73%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: America Mineiro 17%, draw 37%, Fortaleza EC 46%.
Expected goals: 0.78 vs 1.22.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
America Mineiro have 4 clean sheets this season; Fortaleza EC have 13.
API-Football model advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Fortaleza EC and -3.5 goals.

See more Serie B numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 00:49 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC?

Our main pick is Away Win (Away Win) with 54% confidence. Win probabilities are America Mineiro 17%, draw 37% and Fortaleza EC 46%.

Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC?

Our model gives both teams to score a 38% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 32% chance and the most likely score is 0-1.

When and where is America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC?

Thursday 8 October 2026 at 00:30, Arena Independência, Bello Harisanta.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.