Ykkösliiga· Finland · Group Stage

KäPa

17:00

🕒 17:00

MP

KäPa vs MP prediction

📅 Fri 9 Oct 2026 🏟️ Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki

Prediction

● Live data

40%

KäPa

35%

Draw

25%

MP

KäPa 40% · draw 35% · MP 25%. We pick 1X (Accurate Football Prediction Site - ekepredict.com). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 57%.

🎯 Our pick

Accurate Football Prediction Site - ekepredict.com · 1X

1X @ 1.40 Confidence 78%

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All prediction categories

1X2

Value

140%

Fair 2.47Odds 2.62

Home win

Value

Home win40%

Fair 2.47Odds 2.62

Away win

Away win25%

Fair 4.08Odds 1.25

Double chance

Value

1X75%

Fair 1.32Odds 1.40

Draw no bet

Home DNB62%

Fair 1.61Odds —

Win either half

Away WEH54%

Fair 1.86Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.577%

Fair 1.29Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.554%

Fair 1.86Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

Under 3.569%

Fair 1.46Odds —

Both teams to score

GG (Yes)57%

Fair 1.75Odds 1.44

Correct score

1-112%

Fair 8.47Odds 6.50

Banker tip

Over 1.577%

Fair 1.29Odds —

Super single

Home DNB62%

Fair 1.61Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner

12.20

X3.40

22.62

Double chance

1X1.40

121.25

X21.57

Both teams to score

Yes1.44

No2.40

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	40%	2.47	2.62	Value
Home win	Home win	40%	2.47	2.62	Value
Away win	Away win	25%	4.08	1.25
Double chance	1X	75%	1.32	1.40	Value
Draw no bet	Home DNB	62%	1.61	—
Win either half	Away WEH	54%	1.86	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	77%	1.29	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	54%	1.86	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	69%	1.46	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	57%	1.75	1.44
Correct score	1-1	12%	8.47	6.50
Banker	Over 1.5	77%	1.29	—
Super single	Home DNB	62%	1.61	—

Form & head to head

KäPa

DDLWW

53%

Form

75%

Attack

17%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)9 / 10

Season W-D-L6-6-13

Clean sheets · failed to score3 · 7

MP

LWDWD

53%

Form

42%

Attack

58%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)5 / 5

Season W-D-L8-5-12

Clean sheets · failed to score6 · 7

Team comparison

Form

50%

Attack

64%

36%

Defence

33%

67%

Poisson model

47%

53%

Head to head

80%

20%

Goals

71%

29%

Overall

57%

42%

Head to head

6

Home wins

1

Draws

2

Away wins

29 Jul 26 MP 2 - 1 KäPa

19 Apr 26 MP 0 - 1 KäPa

14 Sep 24 KäPa 3 - 2 MP

11 Jul 24 MP 2 - 6 KäPa

12 May 24 KäPa 4 - 0 MP

28 Jun 23 MP 6 - 2 KäPa

4.22 goals per meeting · BTTS in 6 of 9 · over 2.5 in 6 of 9.

Match preview

KäPa vs MP: match preview

KäPa host MP in the Ykkösliiga (Group Stage) at Markku.fi Areena on Friday 9 October, kick-off 17:00.

Form guide

KäPa have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. MP have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. At home this season KäPa have 3 wins from 12 games, while MP have won 3 of 13 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.38 goals for KäPa and 1.45 for MP, 2.83 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 77% chance, over 2.5 54% and both teams to score 57%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 9 meetings, KäPa won 6, MP won 2 and 1 ended level, with 4.2 goals per game and both teams scoring in 6.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Accurate Football Prediction Site - ekepredict.com (1X) at 78% confidence, priced at 1.40. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (77%), 1X (75%), Under 3.5 (69%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: KäPa 40%, draw 35%, MP 25%.
Expected goals: 1.38 vs 1.45.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
KäPa have 3 clean sheets this season; MP have 6.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : KäPa or draw.

See more Ykkösliiga numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

EE

Written by EkeTips Editorial Team Football Analysis Desk

The EkeTips Editorial Team writes the match previews and predictions published on EkeTips every day. Each preview is built from team form, head-to-head records, goal trends, lineu...

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By EkeTips Editorial Team · Updated 9 Oct 14:07 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for KäPa vs MP?

Our main pick is Accurate Football Prediction Site - ekepredict.com (1X) with 78% confidence. Win probabilities are KäPa 40%, draw 35% and MP 25%.

Will both teams score in KäPa vs MP?

Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in KäPa vs MP?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.

When and where is KäPa vs MP?

Friday 9 October 2026 at 17:00, Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.