Serie A· Brazil · Regular Season - 29

Botafogo

0-1

45'

Vasco DA Gama

Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction

📅 Thu 8 Oct 2026 🏟️ Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro 🧑‍⚖️ Bruno Arleu

Prediction

● Live data

22%

Botafogo

35%

Draw

43%

Vasco DA Gama

Botafogo 22% · draw 35% · Vasco DA Gama 43%. We pick X2 (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 60%.

🎯 Our pick

Double Chance · X2

X2 @ 1.36 Confidence 70%

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All prediction categories

1X2

243%

Fair 2.33Odds 1.30

Home win

Home win22%

Fair 4.45Odds 2.20

Away win

Away win43%

Fair 2.33Odds 1.30

Double chance

Value

X278%

Fair 1.29Odds 1.36

Draw no bet

Away DNB66%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Win either half

Away WEH56%

Fair 1.80Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.580%

Fair 1.26Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.557%

Fair 1.75Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

Under 3.565%

Fair 1.53Odds —

Both teams to score

GG (Yes)60%

Fair 1.67Odds 1.55

Correct score

1-111%

Fair 8.86Odds 6.50

Banker tip

Over 1.580%

Fair 1.26Odds —

Super single

Away DNB66%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner

12.90

X3.40

22.20

Double chance

1X1.57

121.30

X21.36

Both teams to score

Yes1.55

No2.30

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	43%	2.33	1.30
Home win	Home win	22%	4.45	2.20
Away win	Away win	43%	2.33	1.30
Double chance	X2	78%	1.29	1.36	Value
Draw no bet	Away DNB	66%	1.52	—
Win either half	Away WEH	56%	1.80	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	80%	1.26	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	57%	1.75	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	65%	1.53	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	60%	1.67	1.55
Correct score	1-1	11%	8.86	6.50
Banker	Over 1.5	80%	1.26	—
Super single	Away DNB	66%	1.52	—

Form & head to head

Botafogo

LDDWL

33%

Form

29%

Attack

43%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)4 / 8

Season W-D-L9-8-11

Clean sheets · failed to score4 · 7

Vasco DA Gama

LWLWW

60%

Form

79%

Attack

50%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)11 / 7

Season W-D-L8-7-12

Clean sheets · failed to score3 · 8

Team comparison

Form

36%

64%

Attack

27%

73%

Defence

47%

53%

Poisson model

62%

38%

Head to head

50%

Goals

54%

46%

Overall

46%

54%

Head to head

4

Home wins

3

Draws

3

Away wins

8 Oct 26 Botafogo 0 - 1 Vasco DA Gama

5 Apr 26 Vasco DA Gama 1 - 2 Botafogo

8 Feb 26 Vasco DA Gama 2 - 0 Botafogo

5 Nov 25 Botafogo 3 - 0 Vasco DA Gama

12 Sep 25 Botafogo 1 - 1 Vasco DA Gama

28 Aug 25 Vasco DA Gama 1 - 1 Botafogo

2.10 goals per meeting · BTTS in 4 of 10 · over 2.5 in 3 of 10.

Match statistics

44%Ball Possession56%

5Total Shots8

1Shots on Goal4

4Corner Kicks5

4Fouls3

0Yellow Cards0

3Goalkeeper Saves1

Key events

28'⚽ Alan Lescano Normal Goal

Match preview

Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama: match preview

Botafogo host Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A (Regular Season - 29) at Estádio Nilton Santos on Thursday 8 October, kick-off 00:30.

Form guide

Botafogo have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league games, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Vasco DA Gama have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 league games, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. At home this season Botafogo have 5 wins from 14 games, while Vasco DA Gama have won 1 of 13 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.42 goals for Botafogo and 1.55 for Vasco DA Gama, 2.97 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 80% chance, over 2.5 57% and both teams to score 60%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Botafogo won 4, Vasco DA Gama won 3 and 3 ended level, with 2.1 goals per game and both teams scoring in 4.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) at 70% confidence, priced at 1.36. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (80%), X2 (78%), Away DNB (66%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Botafogo 22%, draw 35%, Vasco DA Gama 43%.
Expected goals: 1.42 vs 1.55.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Botafogo have 4 clean sheets this season; Vasco DA Gama have 3.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or Vasco DA Gama.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 01:18 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) with 70% confidence. Win probabilities are Botafogo 22%, draw 35% and Vasco DA Gama 43%.

Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?

Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.

When and where is Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?

Thursday 8 October 2026 at 00:30, Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.