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Serie A· Brazil · Regular Season - 29
Atletico Paranaense logo

Atletico Paranaense

2-2
FT
Atletico-MG logo

Atletico-MG

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG prediction

📅 Fri 9 Oct 2026 🏟️ Arena da Baixada, Curitiba 🧑‍⚖️ Ramon Abatti

Prediction

● Live data
26%
Atletico Paranaense
35%
Draw
39%
Atletico-MG

Atletico Paranaense 26% · draw 35% · Atletico-MG 39%. We pick GG (BTTS). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 59%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won
BTTS · GG
GG @ 1.79 Confidence 56%
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All prediction categories

1X2

✕
239%
Fair 2.55Odds 1.30

Home win

✕
Home win26%
Fair 3.83Odds 3.40

Away win

✕
Away win39%
Fair 2.55Odds 1.30

Double chance

✓
X274%
Fair 1.35Odds 1.70

Draw no bet

✕
Away DNB60%
Fair 1.67Odds —

Win either half

✕
Home WEH57%
Fair 1.76Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓
Over 1.579%
Fair 1.26Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓
Over 2.557%
Fair 1.76Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕
Under 3.566%
Fair 1.52Odds —

Both teams to score

✓
GG (Yes)59%
Fair 1.68Odds 1.80

Correct score

✕
1-111%
Fair 8.85Odds 5.80

Banker tip

✓
Over 1.579%
Fair 1.26Odds —

Super single

✓
X274%
Fair 1.35Odds 1.70

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner
12.05
X3.25
23.40
Double chance
1X1.29
121.30
X21.70
Both teams to score
Yes1.80
No1.95

Value check

MarketPickProb.FairOdds
1X2239%2.551.30
Home winHome win26%3.833.40
Away winAway win39%2.551.30
Double chanceX274%1.351.70Value
Draw no betAway DNB60%1.67—
Win either halfHome WEH57%1.76—
Over 1.5Over 1.579%1.26—
Over 2.5Over 2.557%1.76—
Under 3.5Under 3.566%1.52—
BTTSGG (Yes)59%1.681.80Value
Correct score1-111%8.855.80
BankerOver 1.579%1.26—
Super singleX274%1.351.70Value

Form & head to head

Atletico Paranaense

WDLDW
53%
Form
86%
Attack
14%
Defence
Scored / conceded (last 5)12 / 12
Season W-D-L14-7-7
Clean sheets · failed to score8 · 6

Atletico-MG

WLWDW
67%
Form
50%
Attack
64%
Defence
Scored / conceded (last 5)7 / 5
Season W-D-L12-7-9
Clean sheets · failed to score7 · 9

Team comparison

Form
44%
56%
Attack
63%
37%
Defence
29%
71%
Poisson model
68%
32%
Head to head
29%
71%
Goals
40%
60%
Overall
45%
54%

Head to head

3
Home wins
2
Draws
5
Away wins
9 Oct 26 Atletico Paranaense 2 - 2 Atletico-MG
5 Apr 26 Atletico-MG 2 - 1 Atletico Paranaense
8 Dec 24 Atletico-MG 1 - 0 Atletico Paranaense
16 Nov 24 Atletico Paranaense 1 - 0 Atletico-MG
2 Sep 23 Atletico Paranaense 1 - 1 Atletico-MG
23 May 23 Atletico-MG 2 - 1 Atletico Paranaense

2.60 goals per meeting · BTTS in 7 of 10 · over 2.5 in 6 of 10.

Match statistics

51%Ball Possession49%
31Total Shots15
10Shots on Goal9
10Corner Kicks4
13Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
7Goalkeeper Saves8

Key events

  1. 8'⚽ Kerwin Vargas Normal Goal
  2. 27'⚽ Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte Normal Goal
  3. 64'📺 Claudinho Goal cancelled
  4. 67'🟨 Tomás Cuello Yellow Card
  5. 72'📺 Tomás Pérez Card upgrade confirmed
  6. 73'🟥 Tomás Pérez Red Card
  7. 74'🟨 Kevin Castaño Yellow Card
  8. 90'+3⚽ Kevin Viveros Normal Goal
  9. 90'+7⚽ Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović Normal Goal

Match preview

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG: match preview

Atletico Paranaense host Atletico-MG in the Serie A (Regular Season - 29) at Arena da Baixada on Friday 9 October, kick-off 00:00. The match finished 2-2.

Form guide

Atletico Paranaense have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league games, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. Atletico-MG have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. At home this season Atletico Paranaense have 9 wins from 14 games, while Atletico-MG have won 4 of 14 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.58 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.38 for Atletico-MG, 2.96 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 79% chance, over 2.5 57% and both teams to score 59%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 3, Atletico-MG won 5 and 2 ended level, with 2.6 goals per game and both teams scoring in 7.

Our verdict

Our main pick is BTTS (GG) at 56% confidence, priced at 1.79. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (79%), X2 (74%), Under 3.5 (66%).

Key facts

  • Win probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 26%, draw 35%, Atletico-MG 39%.
  • Expected goals: 1.58 vs 1.38.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Atletico Paranaense have 8 clean sheets this season; Atletico-MG have 7.
  • API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or Atletico-MG.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

EE
Written by Football Analysis Desk

The EkeTips Editorial Team writes the match previews and predictions published on EkeTips every day. Each preview is built from team form, head-to-head records, goal trends, lineu...

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By · Updated 9 Oct 14:09 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
Our main pick is BTTS (GG) with 56% confidence. Win probabilities are Atletico Paranaense 26%, draw 35% and Atletico-MG 39%.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.
When and where is Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
Friday 9 October 2026 at 00:00, Arena da Baixada, Curitiba.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.
Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

  • Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
  • Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
  • Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
  • Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.