Serie A· Brazil · Regular Season - 6

Cruzeiro

3-3

FT

Vasco DA Gama

Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama prediction

📅 Mon 16 Mar 2026 🏟️ Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte 🧑‍⚖️ Lucas Paulo Torezin, Brazil

Prediction

● Live data

22%

Cruzeiro

35%

Draw

43%

Vasco DA Gama

Cruzeiro 22% · draw 35% · Vasco DA Gama 43%. We pick X2 (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 55%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · X2

X2 Confidence 71%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✕

243%

Fair 2.35Odds —

Home win

✕

Home win22%

Fair 4.52Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win43%

Fair 2.35Odds —

Double chance

✓

X278%

Fair 1.28Odds —

Draw no bet

✕

Away DNB66%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Win either half

✓

Away WEH54%

Fair 1.84Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.576%

Fair 1.32Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.551%

Fair 1.95Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.571%

Fair 1.41Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

GG (Yes)55%

Fair 1.81Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-112%

Fair 8.25Odds —

Banker tip

✓

X278%

Fair 1.28Odds —

Super single

✕

Away DNB66%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	43%	2.35	—
Home win	Home win	22%	4.52	—
Away win	Away win	43%	2.35	—
Double chance	X2	78%	1.28	—
Draw no bet	Away DNB	66%	1.52	—
Win either half	Away WEH	54%	1.84	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	76%	1.32	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.95	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	71%	1.41	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	55%	1.81	—
Correct score	1-1	12%	8.25	—
Banker	X2	78%	1.28	—
Super single	Away DNB	66%	1.52	—

Form & head to head

Cruzeiro

LLDDL

13%

Form

40%

Attack

0%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)4 / 11

Season W-D-L0-2-3

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 2

Vasco DA Gama

LDLLW

27%

Form

50%

Attack

30%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)5 / 7

Season W-D-L1-1-3

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 1

Team comparison

Form

33%

67%

Attack

44%

56%

Defence

39%

61%

Poisson model

50%

Head to head

50%

Goals

44%

56%

Overall

43%

56%

Head to head

3

Home wins

4

Draws

3

Away wins

30 Aug 26 Vasco DA Gama 3 - 1 Cruzeiro

16 Mar 26 Cruzeiro 3 - 3 Vasco DA Gama

27 Sep 25 Vasco DA Gama 2 - 0 Cruzeiro

27 Apr 25 Cruzeiro 1 - 0 Vasco DA Gama

29 Sep 24 Cruzeiro 1 - 1 Vasco DA Gama

16 Jun 24 Vasco DA Gama 0 - 0 Cruzeiro

2.40 goals per meeting · BTTS in 4 of 10 · over 2.5 in 4 of 10.

Match statistics

60%Ball Possession40%

20Total Shots15

6Shots on Goal7

5Corner Kicks4

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

2Goalkeeper Saves3

1.29Expected goals (xG)1.22

Key events

8'⚽ Christian Normal Goal
45'+4🟨 Andrés Gómez Yellow Card
52'⚽ Cauan Barros Normal Goal
54'🟨 Matheus Pereira Yellow Card
54'⚽ Cauan Barros Normal Goal
58'📺 Cauan Barros Card upgrade
59'🟥 Cauan Barros Red Card
70'⚽ Néiser Villarreal Normal Goal
86'⚽ Brenner Normal Goal
90'+4⚽ Japa Normal Goal
90'🟨 Brenner Yellow Card

Match preview

Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama: match preview

Cruzeiro host Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A (Regular Season - 6) at Governador Magalhães Pinto on Monday 16 March, kick-off 00:30. The match finished 3-3.

Form guide

Cruzeiro have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 league games, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Vasco DA Gama have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. At home this season Cruzeiro have 0 wins from 2 games, while Vasco DA Gama have won 0 of 2 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.3 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.43 for Vasco DA Gama, 2.73 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 76% chance, over 2.5 51% and both teams to score 55%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Cruzeiro won 3, Vasco DA Gama won 3 and 4 ended level, with 2.4 goals per game and both teams scoring in 4.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) at 71% confidence. The model also leans towards X2 (78%), Over 1.5 (76%), Under 3.5 (71%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Cruzeiro 22%, draw 35%, Vasco DA Gama 43%.
Expected goals: 1.3 vs 1.43.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Cruzeiro have 0 clean sheets this season; Vasco DA Gama have 0.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or Vasco DA Gama.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 01:19 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) with 71% confidence. Win probabilities are Cruzeiro 22%, draw 35% and Vasco DA Gama 43%.

Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.

When and where is Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?

Monday 16 March 2026 at 00:30, Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.