Serie A· Brazil · Regular Season - 2

Gremio

5-3

FT

Botafogo

Gremio vs Botafogo prediction

📅 Thu 5 Feb 2026 🏟️ Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre 🧑‍⚖️ F. Fernandes de Lima

Prediction

● Live data

7%

Gremio

27%

Draw

66%

Botafogo

Gremio 7% · draw 27% · Botafogo 66%. We pick 2 (Away Win). Most likely score 0-2, over 2.5 at 68%, BTTS at 37%.

🎯 Our pick✗ Lost

Away Win · 2

2 Confidence 53%

Get today's VIP slip

All prediction categories

1X2

✕

266%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win7%

Fair 14.63Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win66%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Double chance

✕

X293%

Fair 1.07Odds —

Draw no bet

✕

Away DNB91%

Fair 1.10Odds —

Win either half

✓

Away WEH91%

Fair 1.10Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.586%

Fair 1.16Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.568%

Fair 1.47Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.554%

Fair 1.86Odds —

Both teams to score

✕

NG (No)63%

Fair 1.60Odds —

Correct score

✕

0-214%

Fair 7.36Odds —

Banker tip

✕

X293%

Fair 1.07Odds —

Super single

✕

266%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	66%	1.52	—
Home win	Home win	7%	14.63	—
Away win	Away win	66%	1.52	—
Double chance	X2	93%	1.07	—
Draw no bet	Away DNB	91%	1.10	—
Win either half	Away WEH	91%	1.10	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	86%	1.16	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.47	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	54%	1.86	—
BTTS	NG (No)	63%	1.60	—
Correct score	0-2	14%	7.36	—
Banker	X2	93%	1.07	—
Super single	2	66%	1.52	—

Form & head to head

Gremio

L

0%

Form

8%

Attack

85%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)1 / 2

Season W-D-L0-0-1

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Botafogo

W

100%

Form

31%

Attack

100%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)4 / 0

Season W-D-L1-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 0

Team comparison

Form

0%

100%

Attack

20%

80%

Defence

0%

100%

Poisson model

0%

Head to head

38%

62%

Goals

47%

53%

Overall

35%

65%

Head to head

4

Home wins

2

Draws

4

Away wins

16 Sep 26 Botafogo 3 - 2 Gremio

5 Feb 26 Gremio 5 - 3 Botafogo

22 Nov 25 Botafogo 3 - 2 Gremio

24 Sep 25 Gremio 1 - 1 Botafogo

29 Sep 24 Botafogo 0 - 0 Gremio

16 Jun 24 Gremio 1 - 2 Botafogo

4.30 goals per meeting · BTTS in 8 of 10 · over 2.5 in 7 of 10.

Match statistics

44%Ball Possession56%

14Total Shots9

8Shots on Goal4

4Corner Kicks2

13Fouls16

0Yellow Cards3

1Goalkeeper Saves3

3.17Expected goals (xG)1.13

Key events

7'🟨 A. Barboza Yellow Card
16'🟨 M. Anselmi Yellow Card
17'⚽ Arthur Cabral Normal Goal
26'⚽ Carlos Vinicius Normal Goal
36'⚽ Danilo Normal Goal
50'⚽ Carlos Vinicius Normal Goal
53'🟨 M. Ponte Yellow Card
57'⚽ Carlos Vinicius Penalty
60'⚽ Tete Normal Goal
70'🟨 Allan Yellow Card
79'⚽ Edenilson Normal Goal
86'⚽ Danilo Normal Goal

Match preview

Gremio vs Botafogo: match preview

Gremio host Botafogo in the Serie A (Regular Season - 2) at Arena do Grêmio on Thursday 5 February, kick-off 01:30. The match finished 5-3.

Form guide

Gremio have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 1 league game, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Botafogo have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 1 league game, averaging 4.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 0.5 goals for Gremio and 3 for Botafogo, 3.50 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 86% chance, over 2.5 68% and both teams to score 37%. The single most likely score is 0-2.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Gremio won 4, Botafogo won 4 and 2 ended level, with 4.3 goals per game and both teams scoring in 8.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Away Win (2) at 53% confidence. The model also leans towards X2 (93%), Away WEH (91%), Away DNB (91%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Gremio 7%, draw 27%, Botafogo 66%.
Expected goals: 0.5 vs 3.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Gremio have 0 clean sheets this season; Botafogo have 1.
API-Football model advice: Winner : Botafogo.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 00:46 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Gremio vs Botafogo?

Our main pick is Away Win (2) with 53% confidence. Win probabilities are Gremio 7%, draw 27% and Botafogo 66%.

Will both teams score in Gremio vs Botafogo?

Our model gives both teams to score a 37% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Botafogo?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 68% chance and the most likely score is 0-2.

When and where is Gremio vs Botafogo?

Thursday 5 February 2026 at 01:30, Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.